Volume IX · The Shipping Annual Mid-Year Field Report

The five point nine percent fiction, and the eight-to-twelve percent the warehouse actually pays. A field report on the 2026 parcel-and-courier landscape, the carriers who set its rules, and the surcharges that quietly do the real work.

Headline GRI
5.9%posted
Actual bill impact
8–12%measured
Oversize threshold
17,280in³
Residential surcharge
+8.4%y/y
Carriers profiled
9in issue
§ 01

A five point nine percent headline, an eleven percent receipt.

Editor's Letter

At four in the morning on the third Monday of January 2026 the loading dock at the DHL Cargo facility in Frankfurt-Rebstock was running, as it had been running for forty hours straight, on coffee that had been black since Sunday and a printer that had refused to acknowledge the new rate card. The technician kept hitting the reset switch. The supervisor, a woman named Karin who has been on this dock since the Deutsche Post grey livery, did not bother to look up. The rate card had been published in November. She had already re-priced everything in the warehouse management system on the second Tuesday of December. The printer was, in her phrase, "catching up to a war that had already been fought."

This is how the annual general rate increase lands at sea level. There is a press release in October. There is a one-line news item in December — five point nine percent across the board, FedEx and UPS and DHL Express all converging on the same headline number as if by treaty, which of course they more or less had. There is a slightly amused editorial in the trade press. And then there is Karin, who has already done the math and knows what the operators behind her know: the headline GRI is the smallest of the three numbers that will move the bill this year.

The other two numbers are the surcharges, which rose between seven and nine percent depending on the lane, and the dimensional-weight thresholds, which on the twelfth of January quietly redrew the line at which an Additional Handling charge attaches to any package exceeding 10,368 cubic inches, and the line at which the Oversize Charge attaches to any package above 17,280 cubic inches or 110 pounds. The Residential Surcharge alone went up 8.4 percent year-over-year, and FedEx Home Delivery's appointment, evening, and date-certain charges moved from per-shipment to per-package — a change that does not appear in any press release and that the cosmetics warehouse three doors down from Karin's dock will feel every time it sends a customer a four-box gift set.

"The five-nine number is the one they put on the slide. Eight to twelve is the one I show my CFO. The difference is the surcharge stack, and the surcharge stack is now a product line, not a footnote." — Andrei Lemmer, head of logistics, Falke Hosiery, Schmallenberg

This is the ninth volume of The Shipping Annual. We started it in 2018 because there was no one place a small shipper could read, in one sitting, a useful field assessment of who the parcel carriers actually were that year — what they were good at, what they were bad at, where their rates were going, and what tricks the surcharge departments were running on the side. The format has not changed much. The carriers have. DHL Express is no longer simply a courier; it is a customs platform with airplanes attached. FedEx is two companies trapped in one bird logo, an excellent air freight network bolted to a domestic last-mile economy that does not fully work. UPS is still the most expensive way to get something across a city and the cheapest way to get it across a continent on a Tuesday. USPS is, against all predictions, alive and modestly competitive on the residential lane. Royal Mail is rebuilding from the 2022–2024 strike fallout one Tracked 24 label at a time. La Poste is methodical. And the Asia-Pacific upstarts — Evri, GLS, Canada Post across their respective lanes — are quietly eating inbound volume the big three assumed was theirs.

What follows is the issue. We have profiled nine carriers, costed a single four-kilogram shipment from Berlin to Singapore three different ways, walked through dimensional weight in plain words, and let an operator in Schmallenberg say what the trade press will not. The cover photo, for the record, is Karin's dock at 4:38 a.m. on the morning the printer finally caught up.

§ 02

The Big Three at the manifest desk.

Carrier Profiles
Carrier Strength Weak spot International coverage 2026 GRI Note
DHL ExpressBonn, DE Cross-border customs handling — bonded warehousing, broker-of-record service in 220+ countries, Time Definite Worldwide. US domestic. Lanes inside the United States are subcontracted and slower than the brochure suggests; on-time performance below the FedEx/UPS baseline. 220+ countries, 5 continental hubs (Leipzig, Cincinnati, Hong Kong, East Midlands, Bahrain). +5.9%US accts · eff 01 Jan 2026 EU exports vary by origin: UK / France / Austria avg +4.9%, NL / PL / ES +5.9%, Norway +6.9%.
FedExMemphis, US US air freight. The Memphis WorldHub still moves more time-definite tonnage overnight than any other facility on the planet. Retail e-commerce last mile. The Home Delivery surcharge stack now bites per-package; appointment / evening / date-certain rolled out of per-shipment in January. 220+ countries via FedEx International Priority and FedEx International Economy. Strong inbound to US, weaker EU intra. +5.9%eff 05 Jan 2026 Residential Surcharge up 8.4%. Per-package billing on Home Delivery accessorials is the change to model first.
UPSAtlanta, US B2B ground and integrated logistics. The brown van is still the cheapest way to move a pallet between commercial addresses in the lower 48 by Tuesday. Flexibility for small shippers. Below 200 packages/day the published-rate discounts evaporate and contract negotiation is opaque. 200+ countries via UPS Worldwide Express. Strong intra-EU via Cologne hub; weaker into APAC outside Hong Kong. +5.9%eff 22 Dec 2025 First of the three to publish, first to take effect. New oversize threshold 17,280 in³ — model the dim-weight reshuffle before signing.
Source · carrier service guides, 2026 editions · cross-checked with shipper invoices Feb–May 2026 § Big Three · combined 2025 parcel revenue ~ $189B
§ 03

Regional contenders, six flags.

Postal & Specialist Networks
North America

USPS

united states postal service

Against early-2020s obituaries, USPS Priority Mail remains the cheapest way to move a 2–10 lb parcel residentially across the United States — and the only major US network where Saturday delivery is included rather than billed as an accessorial. Priority Mail Express still beats UPS Next Day Air on average bill for envelopes and small flat-rate boxes.

Priority Mail International, often dismissed, is in 2026 the single most customs-friendly outbound option for shippers under 1,500 packages a month: CN22/CN23 handling is automated, and Section 321 inbound to the US (for ROW shippers) still clears under the de minimis.

Best use case · US residential, 2–10 lb, no Saturday surcharge.
United Kingdom

Royal Mail

tracked 24 / 48 · special delivery

Recovering reliability after the 2022–2024 CWU strike fallout — and reliability has improved meaningfully through 2025 and the first half of 2026. Tracked 24 is now hitting its J+1 SLA on 92% of postcodes vs. 78% in mid-2024; Tracked 48 is back as a serious residential workhorse.

International Tracked & Signed has been re-priced upward but remains the lowest-friction outbound from the UK for letters and small parcels — the customs paperwork is genuinely handled, not just promised.

Best use case · UK domestic letters & small parcels, recovering trust.
Germany

DHL Paket

deutsche post · paket, not express

Note carefully: DHL Paket is the Deutsche Post parcel arm — it is not DHL Express. The two share a logo, a parent, and almost nothing else operationally. Paket runs the German domestic parcel network with 99% next-day coverage and an enormous Packstation locker fleet (~14,000 nationwide).

For outbound EU shipments it offers Premium and Standard tracks; the Standard track is genuinely cheap (~€6.99 for a 2 kg M-Paket to France) but transit is J+3 to J+5 and customer-service escalation is, charitably, deliberate.

Best use case · German domestic, locker-friendly returns.
France

La Poste · Colissimo

colissimo · chrono · so colissimo

Methodical. Colissimo is France's parcel default and a very good one if your customer is in metropolitan France: J+2 to most postcodes, J+3 for Corsica and DOM-TOM, automated insurance up to €23 included on every label. The Point Relais drop-off network (Mondial Relay aside) is dense in towns above 6,000 inhabitants.

International Colissimo to the EU is competitive on the 0–2 kg band; beyond 5 kg the rates climb faster than Royal Mail or DHL Paket. Chrono is the next-day express variant — pricey but punctual.

Best use case · Metropolitan France, J+2 with insurance baked in.
China & Asia

SF Express

shunfeng · 顺丰

The premium Chinese carrier. Inside mainland China, SF Express delivers J+1 between top-tier cities at a price point Western shippers find startling for the SLA delivered. Hong Kong, Macau and Taipei are J+1 to J+2 on the standard product.

The Southeast Asia network — Singapore, Kuala Lumpur, Bangkok, Ho Chi Minh, Jakarta — has expanded materially through 2024–2026, with SF International now hitting J+3 from Shenzhen to Singapore on the Standard Express product. Customs handling is direct-injection-flavoured and works well below the local de-minimis lines.

Best use case · Intra-China J+1; outbound SEA on the SF International lane.
§ 04

Berlin to Singapore, three ways. One package, three bills.

Timeline · Cross-Border
Shipment · 4 kg · 32 × 24 × 18 cm · declared value €420 Origin · Berlin-Mitte 10117 Destination · Singapore 238859 Tracking · JD0123-456-7890-BER-SIN
Phase 01 · Pickup · door to origin gateway
DHL Express
DHL Express courier, scheduled window 09:00–13:00
Day 1 · 11:14€0 included
FedEx Intl Priority
FedEx Express courier, scheduled window 10:00–14:00
Day 1 · 13:02€0 included
SingPost via DPDHL
Drop-off at Deutsche Post filiale, Friedrichstr. 12
Day 1 · 16:40€0 self-deposit
Phase 02 · Origin sort · linehaul to gateway
DHL Express
Berlin Brandenburg gateway → Leipzig hub overnight
Day 1 · 21:18scan · IT
FedEx Intl Priority
Berlin sort → Cologne/Bonn hub → Paris CDG sort
Day 1 · 23:44scan · DP
SingPost via DPDHL
Berlin sort → Frankfurt international gateway (consolidated)
Day 2 · 04:50scan · OG
Phase 03 · Air leg · gateway to destination country
DHL Express
LEJ → HKG → SIN on dedicated 777F freighter
Day 2 · arrives SIN22h block
FedEx Intl Priority
CDG → CAN (Guangzhou) → SIN via FedEx APAC routing
Day 3 · arrives SIN34h block
SingPost via DPDHL
FRA → SIN bellyhold on Lufthansa LH778, consolidated postal sack
Day 6 · arrives SIN4 days transit
Phase 04 · Customs · Singapore clearance
DHL Express
Broker-of-record DHL · GST 9% on declared value · cleared in 4h
Day 3 · 09:22GST €37.80
FedEx Intl Priority
Broker-of-record FedEx Trade Networks · cleared in 6h
Day 4 · 11:08GST €37.80
SingPost via DPDHL
Singapore Post customs queue · low-priority postal stream
Day 9 · 14:11GST €37.80 + S$10 handling
Phase 05 · Final delivery · to door
DHL Express
DHL Express Singapore last-mile · signed at 14:08
Day 3 · arrives~€78 total
FedEx Intl Priority
FedEx Singapore last-mile · signed at 16:31
Day 4 · arrives~€84 total
SingPost via DPDHL
SingPost postman · letterbox / pickup-point fallback
Day 11 · arrives~€39 total
§ 05

"The headline rate is theatre."

An operator speaks
I have not built a budget around the GRI in four years. The GRI is what we put in the press release for the board. What I actually budget against is the surcharge stack — peak season, residential, address correction, additional handling, large package, the new per-package accessorial billing on Home Delivery. Add those up. That's an eleven percent year, every year. The five point nine is a number for people who don't open the invoice.
Andrei Lemmer · head of logistics, Falke Hosiery · Schmallenberg, North Rhine-Westphalia · interviewed 11 June 2026
The cubic-inch thresholds did the real damage on the 12th of January. We re-modelled twelve hundred SKUs in a fortnight. About one in fourteen crossed 10,368 and picked up an Additional Handling charge we had not been carrying. That is a cosmetics-set problem and a candle-three-pack problem.
Sandra Voss · ops director, Mansell & Park (e-com 3PL) · Manchester · interviewed 03 June 2026

The headline rate is a public-relations object; the surcharges are the actual product.

— The Manifest · Volume IX · §05
§ 06

Dimensional weight, plainly.

A short primer

Carriers do not bill on what your package weighs. They bill on whichever is greater — actual weight, or "dimensional weight" calculated from the box's volume. The intuition: a courier plane fills up by volume long before it fills up by tonnage, so the carrier charges as if your box weighed whatever a same-sized box of average density would weigh.

The formula in 2026 is unchanged: length × width × height ÷ dimensional divisor. The divisor for international Express services is 5,000 (cm³/kg); for US domestic ground it is 139 (in³/lb). Whichever comes out higher — actual or dim — is what you pay for.

Box · cm Actual weight Volume ÷ 5,000 Billable What pays
30 × 30 × 30 2.0 kg 27,000 ÷ 5,000 = 5.4 kg 5.4 kg dim wins
40 × 30 × 20 6.5 kg 24,000 ÷ 5,000 = 4.8 kg 6.5 kg actual wins
60 × 40 × 40 8.0 kg 96,000 ÷ 5,000 = 19.2 kg 19.2 kg dim wins · hard

The second number is the one that catches small shippers — a shoe-box-sized item at six and a half kilos prices like a six-and-a-half-kilo shipment, but a candle-three-pack in a thirty-cube box prices like five and a half. The fix is not magical: it is smaller boxes, denser packing, and a quarterly audit of what your packers are actually shipping in.

The change in 2026 — and this is what hit Sandra Voss's cosmetics SKUs — is the addition of two cubic-volume thresholds on top of the dim-weight math, applied independently of the actual or dim weight:

Additional Handling Surcharge · eff 12 Jan 2026
> 10,368 in³

Any package whose cubic volume exceeds 10,368 cubic inches now triggers an Additional Handling charge regardless of how light it is. A 24 × 24 × 18 inch box (10,368 in³) is the line — anything above attaches.

Oversize Charge · eff 12 Jan 2026
> 17,280 in³ or 110 lb

Above 17,280 cubic inches — or above 110 pounds actual — the package is now in Oversize territory and bills accordingly. The two-axis test means the volume can catch you on a perfectly light package.

§ 07

Questions our readers ask most.

FAQ
Q · 01Why is the 5.9% GRI misleading?+

Because the General Rate Increase is published only against the carrier's base rates — the published per-pound or per-zone rates before any accessorials. In 2026 the surcharge stack rose between seven and nine percent on top of the base, the Residential Surcharge alone went up 8.4 percent year-over-year, and two new cubic-volume thresholds (10,368 in³ and 17,280 in³) reshuffled which packages catch Additional Handling and Oversize. Once the surcharges and the dim-weight reshuffle land, most real shippers see 8–12% effective rate inflation. The 5.9% is the press release; the 11% is the invoice.

Q · 02Which carrier is cheapest for a 2 kg package, Germany to USA?+

For a 2 kg, low-density box from DE to US in 2026: DHL Paket International Premium via Deutsche Post lands around €18–22 with J+5 to J+7 to most US ZIPs, and customs is handled at the postal layer. For tracked-and-signed at J+3, DHL Express Worldwide is around €52–68 depending on origin postal code. FedEx International Economy sits between them at around €44–58 with J+4 to J+6 but worse tracking density than DHL Express. If transit time is negotiable and the customer accepts a postal stream, DHL Paket Premium is the cheapest defensible option.

Q · 03What happens if my package crosses the 10,368 in³ threshold?+

The Additional Handling Surcharge attaches, effective for shipments tendered on or after 12 January 2026. This is independent of actual weight — a perfectly light candle-three-pack in a 24 × 24 × 18 inch box clears the threshold and bills an extra accessorial. The fix is product-level: either redesign packaging to fit under 24 × 24 × 18 (which puts you at exactly 10,368 in³ — a hair under is safer) or absorb the surcharge into the freight-recovery line item at checkout. Audit your SKUs by cubic volume now, not in Q4.

Q · 04Is USPS Priority Mail International still worth using in 2026?+

For US-based shippers sending under ~1,500 outbound parcels a month, yes. PMI's customs handling (CN22/CN23) is now genuinely automated, the destination-country last-mile is handled by the local postal operator (Royal Mail in the UK, Deutsche Post in Germany), and the price point is below DHL Express by 40–60% on most lanes. The trade-offs are tracking density (3–6 scans vs. 12–14 for DHL Express) and transit predictability (J+6 to J+12 vs. J+3 to J+5). Above 1,500 parcels a month a negotiated DHL Express contract usually wins.

Q · 06When should I negotiate carrier contracts in 2026?+

The traditional window — September into October ahead of the November rate-card announcement — is still correct, with one adjustment: bring your cubic-volume distribution to the table this year, not just your weight distribution. Carriers expect to be challenged on the 10,368 in³ and 17,280 in³ thresholds, and many will waive Additional Handling on negotiated tiers if you bring clean SKU-level cube data. Also: ask explicitly about per-package vs. per-shipment accessorial billing on residential lanes. The 2026 shift on FedEx Home Delivery is the change most shippers under-modelled going into Q1.